Closed-loop field development with multipoint geostatistics and statistical performance assessment

摘要

Closed-loop field development (CLFD) optimization is a comprehensiveframework for optimal development of subsurface resources. CLFD involves threemajor steps: 1) optimization of full development plan based on current set ofmodels, 2) drilling new wells and collecting new spatial and temporal(production) data, 3) model calibration based on all data. This process isrepeated until the optimal number of wells is drilled. This work introduces anefficient CLFD implementation for complex systems described by multipointgeostatistics (MPS). Model calibration is accomplished in two steps:conditioning to spatial data by a geostatistical simulation method, andconditioning to production data by optimization-based PCA. A statisticalprocedure is presented to assess the performance of CLFD. Methodology isapplied to an oil reservoir example for 25 different true-model cases.Application of a single-step of CLFD, improved the true NPV in 64%--80% ofcases. The full CLFD procedure (with three steps) improved the true NPV in 96%of cases, with an average improvement of 37%.