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Modified Hybrid Grey Model (1,1) to Forecast Cellular Subscribers

机译:修改的混合灰度模型(1,1)预测蜂窝用户订户

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摘要

This study develops MHGM (1,1) (Modified Hybrid Grey Model) which is the combination of two models first one is improved GM (1,1), this model consists of optimization of initial and background values and other is concave EDDGM (1,1) (Dynamic Discrete Grey Model) termed, in this model equal division technique is applied to fit the concavity of cumulative sequence and after that created dynamic average value and on the basis of that dynamic average value dynamic discrete GM (1,1) model is established and by the gradual heuristics method or the dichotomy approach the initial equal division number is obtained. We have fixed equal division number ‘n’ between 0 and 1in MHGM (1,1). For forecasting of starting half years we use y(0)(m) as initial condition of model in time restored function and also multiply by a factor e-b 1 to adjust the model. This model has applied without solving by heuristics or dichotomy method. Subscribers of cellular networks increase day by day in Pakistan; cellular industry has total five networks in Pakistan. In this paper data of three cellular networks subscribers that are Mobilink, Ufone and Zong have taken as application of models and it has been proved by using mean absolute percentage error that the forecast accuracy of MHGM (1,1) is better than GM (1,1) (Grey Model) and improved grey model (1,1).
机译:本研究开发了MHGM(修饰的混合灰色模型),这是两个模型的组合首先是改进的GM(1,1),该模型包括初始和背景值的优化,而其他是凹形EDDGM(1如此称为(动态离散灰色模型),在该模型中,应用于拟合累积序列的凹面和在创建动态平均值的基础上进行动态分离GM(1,1)模型是建立的,通过逐渐启发式方法或二分法方法获得初始等分割号。我们在0到1英寸MHGM(1,1)之间有固定的等分号。对于从开始半年开始的预测,我们使用Y(0)(m)作为模型的初始条件在时间恢复的功能,并且还乘以因子E-B 1来调整模型。该模型已经应用于启发式或二分法方法而不解决。蜂窝网络的用户在巴基斯坦日益增长的一天;蜂窝产业在巴基斯坦共有五个网络。在本文中,三个蜂窝网络的数据是MobiLink,UFONE和Zong的用户作为模型的应用,并且通过使用平均绝对百分比误差来证明MHGM(1,1)的预测精度优于GM(1 ,1)(灰色模型)和改进的灰色模型(1,1)。

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