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Ballistic Coefficient Estimation for Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies in Eccentric Orbits Based on TLE Data

机译:基于TLE数据的偏心轨道中火箭体再入预测的弹道系数估计

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摘要

Spent rocket bodies in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) poseudimpact risks to the Earth's surface when they re-enter the Earth's at-udmosphere. To mitigate these risks, re-entry prediction of GTO rocketudbodies is required. In this paper, the re-entry prediction of rocket bod-udies in eccentric orbits based on only Two-Line Element (TLE) dataudand using only ballistic coefficient (BC) estimation is assessed. TheudTLEs are preprocessed to filter out outliers and the BC is estimatedudusing only semi-major axis data. The BC estimation and re-entry pre-uddiction accuracy are analyzed by performing predictions for 101 rocketudbodies initially in GTO and comparing with the actual re-entry epochudat different times before re-entry. Predictions using a single and mul-udtiple BC estimates and using state estimation by orbit determinationudare quantitatively compared with each other for the 101 upper stages.
机译:对地静止转移轨道(GTO)中的废火箭体在重新进入地球大气时会对地球表面造成影响。为了减轻这些风险,需要重新预测GTO火箭尸体。在本文中,仅基于弹道系数(BC)估计,评估了仅基于两线元素(TLE)数据 udand的偏心轨道中的火箭弹重新进入预测。对 udTLE进行预处理以滤除异常值,并且仅使用半长轴数据来估计BC。通过对最初在GTO中进行的101个火箭弹体进行预测,并与重新进入之前的不同时间的实际再入历相比较,来分析BC估计和再进入预测的准确性。对于101个上位阶段,使用单个BC估计和多个BC估计以及使用通过轨道确定的状态估计来进行定量预测。

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