Assessment for Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Emissions of China’s Vehicles: Future Trends and Policy Implications

摘要

In the recent years, China’s auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China’s vehicle population and finds that China’s auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020–2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles’ fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NOx, and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017–2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry.