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Winner and Loser Effects in Major League Baseball Double Headers

机译:美国职棒大联盟双头的获胜者和失败者影响

摘要

Across the animal kingdom it has been observed that outcomes of conflicts are influenced by past experiences, whereby previous winners are likely to keep winning and losers are likely to lose again. These so-called “winner and loser effects” are hypothesized to result from factors such as information acquisition and endocrine responses following the initial bouts. This paper applies the understanding of this phenomenon to a novel domain: patterns of winning and losing in Major League Baseball (MLB) double headers. By accessing archival data available from www.espn.com, we report on the incidence of a single team winning both games (sweeps) versus each team winning one game (splits) in MLB double headers over the last 13 years. Consistent with previous research on winner and loser effects, we show that sweeps are significantly more common than splits and that there is a home field advantage in this context. Results indicate that disparity in opponent quality or skill, as measured by the difference in team records outside the double header match, was not a significant predictor of whether the outcome resulted in a split or a sweep. In contrast to our hypotheses, there was no difference in the margin of victory in games between sweeps and splits. Overall these results add to the existing literature on winner and loser effects, provide a framework for pursuing further research in MLB, and suggest that winner and loser effects may be present across a variety of other forms of human social interaction.
机译:在整个动物界中,已经观察到冲突的结果受过去经验的影响,以前的获胜者很可能继续获胜,而失败者则有可能再次失败。这些所谓的“赢家和输家效应”被认为是由最初发作后的信息获取和内分泌反应等因素引起的。本文将对这种现象的理解应用于一个新颖的领域:美国职棒大联盟(MLB)双头的获胜和失败模式。通过访问可从www.espn.com获得的存档数据,我们报告了过去13年中单支球队赢得两场比赛(抽奖)与每支球队赢得一场比赛(分叉)的发生率。与先前关于获胜者和失败者影响的研究一致,我们表明,横扫比平局明显更为普遍,并且在这种情况下具有主场优势。结果表明,根据双头比赛以外的球队记录差异来衡量,对手素质或技能上的差异并不是预测结果是平局还是平局的重要指标。与我们的假设相反,平局和对局之间的游戏获胜率没有差异。总体而言,这些结果增加了有关赢家和输家影响的现有文献,为进一步研究美国职业棒球大赛提供了框架,并暗示了赢家和输家的影响可能存在于人类社会互动的各种其他形式中。

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