Future changes in the relationship of precipitation intensity in Eastern Mediterranean with large scale circulation

摘要

The objective of this study is to investigate the linkage of large-scaleupper air circulation over the greater European area with intenseprecipitation events over Eastern Mediterranean and then to estimatepotential changes in the atmospheric patterns in the future, under globalwarming conditions. For this purpose, results from the regional climatemodel HadRM3P and Global Circulation Model HadAM3P have been used for thepresent period 1960–1990 (control run) and the future period 2070–2100 basedon the B2a IPCC emission scenario. For the identification of theprecipitation extremes the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) was employed.Our analysis has shown a notable relation of extreme events with the EastAtlantic and Scandinavia teleconnection patterns, as well as the EasternMediterranean Pattern (EMP) during the wet period. In the future, similarpatterns are found, with different magnitude and position, following theprojected changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe.