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Total Investment in Fixed Assets and the Later Stage of Urbanization: A Case Study of Shanghai

机译:固定资产总额和城市化后期的投资:以上海为例

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摘要

After more than 40 years’ opening-up and reform, China’s urbanization has entered a new type of urbanization. In order to reveal the rule of different infrastructure investments and urbanization relationships, this paper uses Shanghai as a case by applying econometric methods to study the detailed relationship between different indicators from 1990 to 2019. Firstly, we quantify that each variable has a long-term co-integration relationship with urbanization by co-integration test. And we found that the real estate is a main driving force of urbanization while the construction project investment plays an important role in promoting the urbanization rate in the studied period. Secondly, according to the Granger test, our study illustrates that each variable has a bilateral Granger relationship with urbanization while the urbanization rate has more Granger causality impact on the studied variables. Thirdly, based on impulse response test and variance decomposition analysis, we found that urbanization rate with other variables accounts for the majority of the percentage of impacts while the total investment in fixed assets and its three categories contribute a small amount to the urbanization rate. Finally, we propose policy suggestions to strengthen healthy urbanization development in Shanghai.
机译:经过40多年的开放和改革,中国的城市化已进入新型城市化。为了揭示不同基础设施投资和城市化关系的规则,本文采用上海以1990年至2019年将不同指标之间的详细关系应用于上海作为案例。首先,我们量化每个变量有一个长期共同集成试验与城市化的共同整合关系。我们发现房地产是城市化的主要推动力,而建设项目投资在促进研究期间的城市化率方面发挥着重要作用。其次,根据格兰杰测试,我们的研究表明,每个变量都有一个与城市化的双边格子关系,而城市化率对研究的变量有更多的格兰杰因果关系。第三,基于脉冲响应试验和方差分解分析,我们发现与其他变量的城市化率占积累的大部分百分比,而固定资产的总投资和其三个类别为城市化率贡献较少。最后,我们提出了加强上海健康城市化发展的政策建议。

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