Relating observations of contrail persistence to numerical weather analysis output

摘要

The potential for using high-resolution meteorological data from twooperational numerical weather analyses (NWA) to diagnose and predictpersistent contrail formation is evaluated using two independent contrailobservation databases. Contrail occurrence statistics derived from surfaceand satellite observations between April 2004 and June 2005 are matched tothe humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stabilityderived from analyses from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the AdvancedRegional Prediction System (ARPS) models. The relationships between contrailoccurrence and the NWA-derived statistics are analyzed to determine underwhich atmospheric conditions persistent contrail formation is favored withinNWAs. Humidity is the most important factor determining whether contrailsare short-lived or persistent, and persistent contrails are more likely toappear when vertical velocities are positive. The model-derived atmosphericstability and wind shear do not appear to have a significant effect oncontrail occurrence.