The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important forproviding valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However,because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, theinfluence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect anduncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distalareas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations,measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökulleruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with avolcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on theforecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show thatthe error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reducedthrough assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuousassimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, theNetherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest thatwith suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ashplume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areascan be greatly improved.
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