Research on the Transmission Ability of China’s Thermal Coal Price Information Based on Directed Limited Penetrable Interdependent Network

摘要

According to the criterion of the visibility graph and the irreversibility of the time series, this paper proposes a new perspective to construct the directed limited penetrable interdependent network (DLPIN) for thermal coal between the opening and closing price series after the Johansen cointegration test. The results of the statistical research and cointegration analysis show that there is a cointegration relationship between the opening and the closing price series, and the relationship between them does not follow a normal distribution. By analyzing the topological characteristic of the DLPIN, the results indicate that there is an obvious "community structure" and scale-free features, which show that there are groups and differences among the thermal coal price, and most of them have a weak transmission ability of the thermal coal price information; only a few of them have a strong transmission ability. The differences of the in-degree and out-degree show that some thermal coal prices have a weak influence on the other prices but are strongly affected by the other prices. In addition, most of the thermal coal prices are far away from the infectious source of the price information; only a few are close to the infectious source of the price information to a certain extent. Obviously, the influence of the thermal coal price has a certain range, which is closely related in a short distance. Furthermore, these results can reveal the internal laws of the main price fluctuation and information transmission for the thermal coal, and some references can be provided to reduce risk investment and improve capital return for the related investors.