Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded acrossSoutheast Asia (SEA). According to the United Nations, oil palm production inSEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impactsof current (2010) and near-term future (2020) projected oil palm expansion inSEA on surface–atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in theregion. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps,and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palmplantation scenario (∼ 1990), overall simulated isoprene emissions inthe region increased by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and afurther 11 % in the near-term future. In addition, the expansion of palmplantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEAincreases surface O by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and inthe near-term future could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels.Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to1 µg m due to oil palm expansion, and could increase by afurther 2.5 µg m in the near-term future. Our analysisindicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air qualityin the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity ofthe current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability toobserve these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue todegrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts toachieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur andSingapore.
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