Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

摘要

We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion ofradionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmosphericchemistry–general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors thatare currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. Weimplemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model andsimulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet depositionprocesses over 20 years (2010–2030), driven by boundary conditionsbased on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall andseasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and grounddeposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans frominhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that therisk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the NorthernHemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layerdevelopment and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of thecurrent nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactivecontamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide,followed by India and France. By including stations under construction andthose that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk willbecome highest in China, followed by India and the USA.