Genetic evaluation for longevity of Croatian Simmental bulls using a piecewise Weibull model

摘要

Genetic evaluation of sires for functional longevity was conducted using survival analysis techniques. The data set consisted of 49 659 Simmental cows with first calving from 1997 to 2008. A piecewise Weibull sire model was used to estimate breeding values of 251 bulls for functional length of productive life of their daughters. The model was stratified by parity i.e. a separate baseline hazard was computed for each stratum. Besides the random sire effect, the model included the fixed time independent effects of age at first calving, herd size and region as well as the time dependent effects of relative milk production and year*season of first calving. The highest impact on longevity was found for relative milk production. Cows with the lowest milk yields were at approximately 2.7 times higher risk of culling compared to cows with average milk production. Effects of age at first calving, herd size and country region had lower impact on longevity. Sire variance was 0.023 which results in a heritability of 0.06 for functional length of productive life. The average approximate reliability of estimated breeding values was 0.49. Genetic trend showed no clear tendency by year of birth of bulls.