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The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects

机译:当前账户的现值模型已被拒绝:围绕通常的嫌疑人

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摘要

Tests of the present-value model of the current account are frequently rejected by the data. Standard explanations rely on the "usual suspects" of nonseparable preferences, shocks to fiscal policy and the world real interest rate, and imperfect international capital mobility. The authors confirm these rejections on postwar Canadian data, then investigate their source by calibrating and simulating alternative versions of a small open economy, real business cycle model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that, although each of the suspects matters in some way, a "canonical" RBC model moves closest to the data when it features exogenous world real interest rate shocks.
机译:该数据经常拒绝对经常账户的现值模型进行测试。标准的解释依赖于不可分离的偏好的“通常的怀疑者”,对财政政策和世界实际利率的冲击以及不完善的国际资本流动。作者在战后加拿大的数据中证实了这些拒绝,然后通过校准和模拟小型开放经济,真实商业周期模型的替代版本来调查其来源。蒙特卡洛实验表明,尽管每个嫌疑人都以某种方式起作用,但当“典范” RBC模型具有外在的世界实际利率震荡特征时,其移动最接近数据。

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