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Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Using Univariate and Bivariate Time-Varying Models Based on GAMLSS

机译:基于GAMLS的单变量和双变量时变模型的非平稳洪水频率分析

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摘要

With the changing environment, a number of researches have revealed that the assumption of stationarity of flood sequences is questionable. In this paper, we established univariate and bivariate models to investigate nonstationary flood frequency with distribution parameters changing over time. Flood peak Q and one-day flood volume W1 of the Wangkuai Reservoir catchment were used as basic data. In the univariate model, the log-normal distribution performed best and tended to describe the nonstationarity in both flood peak and volume sequences reasonably well. In the bivariate model, the optimal log-normal distributions were taken as marginal distributions, and copula functions were addressed to construct the dependence structure of Q and W1. The results showed that the Gumbel-Hougaard copula offered the best joint distribution. The most likely events had an undulating behavior similar to the univariate models, and the combination values of flood peak and volume under the same OR-joint and AND-joint exceedance probability both displayed a decreasing trend. Before 1970, the most likely combination values considering the variation of distribution parameters over time were larger than fixed parameters (stationary), while it became the opposite after 1980. The results highlight the necessity of nonstationary flood frequency analysis.
机译:随着不断变化的环境中,许多研究都表明,洪水序列的平稳性的假设是值得商榷的。在本文中,我们建立了一元和二元模型,研究与分布参数随时间变化的非平稳洪水频率。洪峰Q和王快水库集水区的单日洪量W1被用作基本数据。在单因素分析,对数正态分布进行最好,往往形容两者洪峰和体积序列的非平稳性还算不错。在二元模型,最佳数正态分布被作为边缘分布,和连接函数的功能是向构建Q和W1的相关结构。结果表明,冈贝尔-Hougaard Copula函数提供了最好的联合分布。最有可能的事件也有类似的单变量模型起伏的行为,并洪峰和体积的相同或关节和与关节超越概率下的组合值都显示有减少的趋势。 1970年之前,考虑分布参数随时间的变化最有可能的组合值比固定参数(静止的)放大,同时它成为相反的后1980.结果突出非平稳洪水频率分析的必要性。

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