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Non-parametric adaptive estimation of order 1 Sobol indices in stochastic models, with an application to Epidemiology

机译:随机模型中的订单1索尔索引的非参数自适应估计,具有流行病学的应用

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摘要

The global sensitivity analysis is a set of methods aiming at quantifying thecontribution of an uncertain input parameter of the model (or combination ofparameters) on the variability of the response. We consider here the estimationof the Sobol indices of order 1 which are commonly-used indicators based on adecomposition of the output's variance. In a deterministic framework, when thesame inputs always give the same outputs, these indices are usually estimatedby replicated simulations of the model. In a stochastic framework, when theresponse given a set of input parameters is not unique due to randomness in themodel, metamodels are often used to approximate the mean and dispersion of theresponse by deterministic functions. We propose a new non-parametric estimatorwithout the need of defining a metamodel to estimate the Sobol indices of order1. The estimator is based on warped wavelets and is adaptive in the regularityof the model. The convergence of the mean square error to zero, when the numberof simulations of the model tend to infinity, is computed and an elbow effectis shown, depending on the regularity of the model.
机译:全局灵敏度分析是一组针对所述响应的变异性量化模型(或组合ofparameters)的不确定输入参数的thecontribution方法。我们认为这里的estimationof 1阶Sobol指数,其是基于输出的方差adecomposition常用指标。在确定性框架,当thesame输入总是产生相同的输出,这些指数通常estimatedby复制的模型的模拟。在一个随机框架,当theresponse给定一组输入参数不是在themodel随机性独特由于,元模型通常用于通过确定性函数来近似的平均值和theresponse的分散体。我们提出了一个新的非参数estimatorwithout定义的元模型来估算order1的Sobol指标的需要。该估计是基于扭曲小波,是在regularityof模型自适应。的均方误差的零收敛,当该模型的模拟numberof趋向于无穷大时,被计算并弯头effectis所示,这取决于模型的规律性。

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