首页> 外文OA文献 >System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro
【2h】

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

机译:里约热内卢登革热发病率的系统识别与预测

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务,本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文,但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁,仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况,如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
获取外文期刊封面目录资料

摘要

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S→I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and nont-ime-varying probabilities,three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.
机译:识别,预测,和一个系统的控制是工程受试者,无论系统的性质。在这里,与2007年期间,每周记录在城市的里约热内卢,巴西的登革热个体数量的时间演变,用于识别SIS(易感染敏感)和SIR(易感染,删除)模型制定胞自动机(CA)的条款。在识别过程中,遗传算法(GA)被用来找到的状态转变S的概率→I能够在CA晶格历史系列2007年这些概率再现取决于感染的邻居的数量。时变和nont-IME变化的概率,三种不同大小的格子,和两种耦合单元之间的拓扑结构的考虑。然后,通过将CA和GA建这些流行病模型被用于预测在2008年这样的模型生病的人的情况下,可以成为有用的预测和控制这种传染病的传播。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号