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A Flexible Bridge Rating Method Based on Analytical Evidential Reasoning and Monte Carlo Simulation

机译:一种基于分析证据推理和蒙特卡罗模拟的灵活桥梁额定法

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摘要

Several bridge inspection standards and condition assessment practices have been developed around the globe. Some practices employ four linguistic expressions to rate bridge elements while other practices use five or six, or adopt numerical ratings such as 1 to 9. This research introduces a condition rating method that can operate under different condition assessment practices and account for uncertainties in condition assessment by means of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) theory. The method offers flexibility in terms of using default elements and their weights or selecting alternative set of elements and condition rating schemes. The implemented ER approach accounts for uncertainties in condition rating by treating the condition assessments as probabilistic grades rather than numerical values. The ER approach requires the assignment of initial basic beliefs or probabilities, and typically these initial beliefs are assigned by an expert. Alternatively, this research integrates the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique with the ER theory to quantitatively estimate the basic probabilities and to produce robust overall bridge condition ratings. The proposed method is novel to the literature and has the following features: (1) flexible and can be used with any number of bridge elements and any standard of condition grades; (2) intuitive and simple paired comparison technique is implemented to evaluate weights of the bridge elements; (3) the MCS technique is integrated with the ER approach to quantify uncertainties associated with the stochastic nature of the bridge deterioration process; (4) the method can function with limited data and can incorporate new evidence to update the condition rating; (5) the final rating consists of multiple condition grades and is produced as a distributed probabilistic assessment reflecting the condition of the bridge elements collectively. The proposed method is illustrated with a real case study, and potential future research work is identified.
机译:在全球范围内开发了几种桥梁检查标准和条件评估实践。一些实践采用四种语言表达来利用桥接元件,而其他实践使用五或六个,或采用数值额定值,如1至9。本研究介绍了一种条件评级方法,可以在不同条件评估实践下运行,并在条件评估中占不确定性的条件评级方法通过证据推理(ER)理论。该方法在使用默认元素及其重量方面提供灵活性,或选择替代元素集和条件评定方案。通过将条件评估视为概率等级而不是数值来说,所实施的ER方法占条件评级的不确定性。 ER方法需要分配初始的基本信念或概率,通常这些初始信念由专家分配。或者,该研究将Monte Carlo仿真(MCS)技术与ER理论集成,以定量估计基本概率并产生稳健的整体桥接条件额定值。该方法的新颖对文献进行了新颖,具有以下特点:(1)灵活,可与任何数量的桥接元件和任何条件等级一起使用; (2)实施直观和简单的配对比较技术以评估桥接元件的重量; (3)MCS技术与ER方法集成,以量化与桥梁劣化过程的随机性质相关的不确定性; (4)该方法可以用有限的数据函数,可以包含新的证据来更新条件评级; (5)最终评级由多种条件等级组成,并作为分布式概率评估,反映了桥接元件的条件。该方法用真实的案例研究说明,识别潜在的未来研究工作。

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