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Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy

机译:核实意大利南部实时天气预报系统

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摘要

This paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast is issued for the following three days. The performance is evaluated for a whole year for the surface parameters: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The verification has been performed against SYNOP stations over southern Italy. A dense non-GTS network over Calabria is used for precipitation. Results show that RMSE is about 2-3 K for temperature, 12–16% for relative humidity, 2.0–2.8 m/s for wind speed, and 55–75° for wind direction, the performance varying with the season and with the forecasting time. The error increases between the first and third forecast days. The verification of the rainfall forecast shows that the model underestimates the area of the precipitation. The model output statistics (MOS) is applied to all parameters but precipitation. Results show that the MOS reduces the RMSE by 0–30%, depending on the forecasting time, on the season and on the meteorological parameter.
机译:本文展示了根据区域大气建模系统(RAMS)的操作预测系统的性能,在意大利南部3公里的水平分辨率。该模型是从欧洲中范围天气预报(ECMWF)的12 UTC运营分析/预测周期的初始化。预测在以下三天内发布。对表面参数进行评估的性能为表面参数:温度,相对湿度,风速和方向和沉淀。验证已经针对意大利南部的Synop Stations进行了执行。 Calabria上的密集非GTS网络用于降水。结果表明,RMSE为温度约为2-3 k,相对湿度为12-16%,风速为2.0-2.8米/秒,风向55-75°,随着季节的性能和预测而变化。时间。误差在第一和第三天之间增加。降雨预测的验证表明,该模型低估了降水面积。模型输出统计信息(MOS)应用于所有参数但降水。结果表明,MOS将RMSE降低0-30%,具体取决于预测时间,在季节和气象参数上。

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