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Estimation of Road Traffic Mortality in Kurdistan Province, Iran, During 2004-2009, Using Capture-Recapture Method

机译:伊朗库尔德斯坦省道路交通死亡率估算,2004 - 2009年,采用捕获重新捕获法

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摘要

Background: To reduce traffic injuries in the country, health professionals should have accurateestimates of road traffic deaths. Multiple and sometimes inconsistent statistics presented byorganizations in charge create high degree of uncertainty for planners and decision makers.To achieve an accurate estimate, several methods are available. Of them, capture-recapturemethod seems to be an appropriate and affordable method regarding the reliability of the datasources. This study aimed to estimate the number of road traffic deaths in Kurdistan Provinceduring 2004-2009, using capture-recapture method and based on 2 sources of data obtainedfrom Death Registration System and Forensic Medicine Department.Materials and Methods: All deaths due to road traffic accidents in Kurdistan Province wereextracted during 2004-2009. These deaths were legally registered in Death Registration Systemand Forensic Medicine Department. Shared cases among these 2 sources were identified basedon full name, age, gender, and date of death and finally the accurate number of deaths wascalculated using the correct volume formula.Results: During study period, Forensic Medicine Department of the province had registeredabout 3289 cases of road traffic mortalities and Death Registration System had registered3771 cases of death resulting from road traffic accidents. Using capture-recapture method, thenumber of deaths in the same years was estimated as 5726 people (5818-5634:CI95%). Theproportion of mortality registered in the Death Registration System and Forensic MedicineDepartment of the province to the total estimated deaths were 65.8% and 57.4%, respectivelyand both systems together covered 85.4% of road traffic deaths, i.e. under-reporting of about832 people.Conclusion: The results of the present study indicate that none of 2 sources of ForensicMedicine Department and Death Registration System, per se or both, fully covered road trafficmortalities and using capture-recapture method can help estimate the actual number of deaths.
机译:背景:为了减少该国的交通损伤,卫生专业人士应该准确道路交通死亡估计。多个,有时统计数据负责组织为策划者和决策者创造了高度的不确定性。为了实现准确的估计,可以使用几种方法。其中,捕获 - 重新捕获方法似乎是关于数据可靠性的适当和实惠的方法来源。本研究旨在估算库尔德斯坦省的道路交通死亡人数在2004 - 2009期间,使用捕获重新捕获方法并基于获得的2个数据来源从死亡登记制度和法医学部门。材料和方法:库尔德斯坦省道路交通事故导致的所有死亡在2004-2009期间提取。这些死亡在法律上注册了死亡登记制度和法医医学部门。鉴定了这两个来源中的共享案件在全名,年龄,性别和死亡日期,最后是准确的死亡人数是使用正确的体积公式计算。结果:在研究期间,省法医学部门已注册约3289例道路交通成年人和死亡登记系统已注册道路交通事故产生3771例死亡案件。使用捕获重新捕获方法,同一年的死亡人数估计为5726人(5818-5634:CI95%)。这死亡率比例在死亡登记制度和法医学中登记省内的总部分别为估计的死亡人数为65.8%和57.4%和两个系统一起涵盖了85.4%的道路交通死亡,即关于报告的报告832人。结论:本研究结果表明法医的2个源医学部门和死亡登记制度,本身或两者都是完全覆盖的道路交通死亡率和使用捕获重新捕获方法可以帮助估计实际死亡人数。

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