As an essential measure to mitigate the CO2 emissions, China is constructing a nationwide carbon emission trading (CET) market. The electric power industry is the first sector that will be introduced into this market, but the quota allocation scheme, as the key foundation of market transactions, is still undetermined. This research employed the gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, and electric generation data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2015, a hybrid trend forecasting model, and a three-indicator allocation model to measure the provincial quota allocation for carbon emissions in China’s electric power sector. The conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis can be summarized as follows: (1) The carbon emission peak in China’s electric power sector will appear in 2027, and peak emissions will be 3.63 billion tons, which will surpass the total carbon emissions of the European Union (EU) and approximately equal to 2/3 of the United States of America (USA). (2) The developed provinces that are supported by traditional industries should take more responsibility for carbon mitigation. (3) Nine provinces are expected to be the buyers in the CET market. These provinces are mostly located in eastern China, and account for approximately 63.65% of China’s carbon emissions generated by the electric power sector. (4) The long-distance electric power transmission shifts the carbon emissions and then has an impact on the quotas allocation for carbon emissions. (5) The development and effective utilization of clean power generation will play a positive role for carbon mitigation in China’s electric sector.
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