The demise of the Celtic Tiger economy is one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune in recent economic history. The catastrophic failure of the banking system and the deterioration of the domestic economy have left an indelible mark on society and precipitated a remarkable general election in 2011 (O’Leary, 2012, Irish Political Studies, 27(2), pp. 326–340). It has also raised many important questions. Why was it not anticipated? Why was Ireland so badly affected? And what political and economic reforms are necessary to prevent it from happening again? This research note contributes to the debate over the first question, namely the failure to anticipate the crisis, by analysing the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual surveillance reports of the Irish economy. The findings indicate that the IMF correctly identified many of the threats that were often ignored domestically, but that the quality of its consultations deteriorated in later years.
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