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Can Bayesian agents always be rational? udA principled analysis of consistency udof an Abstract Principal Principle

机译:贝叶斯代理人能不能理性? UD对一致性的原则分析 ud抽象主体原则

摘要

The paper takes the Abstract Principal Principle to be a norm demanding that subjective degrees of belief of a Bayesian agent be equal to the objective probabilities once the agent has conditionalized his subjective degrees of beliefs on the values of the objective probabilities, where the objective probabilities can be not only chances but any other quantities determined objectively. Weak and strong consistency of the Abstract Principal Principle are defined in terms of classical probability measure spaces. It is proved that the Abstract Principal Principle is weakly consistent and that it is strongly consistent in the category of probability measure spaces where the Boolean algebra representing the objective random events is finite. It is argued that it is desirable to strengthen the Abstract Principal Principle by adding a stability requirement to it. Weak and strong consistency of the resulting Stable Abstract Principal Principle are defined, and the strong consistency of the Abstract Principal Principle is interpreted as necessary for a non-omniscient Bayesian agent to be able to have rational degrees of belief in all epistemic situations. It is shown that the Stable Abstract Principal Principle is weakly consistent, but the strong consistency of the Stable Abstract Principal principle remains an open question. We conclude that we do not yet have proof that Bayesian agents can have rational degrees of belief in every epistemic situation.
机译:本文以抽象主原则为准则,要求一旦主体根据目标概率的值确定其主观信念程度,贝叶斯代理的主观信念程度应等于客观概率。不仅是机会,而且是客观确定的任何其他数量。抽象经典原理的弱和强一致性是根据经典概率度量空间定义的。证明了抽象主原理是弱一致的,并且在表示客观随机事件的布尔代数是有限的概率测度空间范畴中,它是强一致的。有人认为,最好通过在抽象原理上增加稳定性要求来增强抽象原理。定义了所得稳定抽象主原则的弱和强一致性,并且抽象非主理的强一致性被解释为非全知贝叶斯代理能够在所有认知情况下都具有合理的信念程度所必需。结果表明,稳定抽象主体原理是弱一致性的,但是稳定抽象主体原理的强一致性仍然是一个未解决的问题。我们得出的结论是,我们还没有证据表明贝叶斯特工在每种认知情况下都可以具有合理的信念度。

著录项

  • 作者

    Rédei Miklós; Gyenis Zalán;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2013
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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