首页> 外文OA文献 >Extreme Value Mixture Modelling with Simulation Study and Applications in Finance and Insurance
【2h】

Extreme Value Mixture Modelling with Simulation Study and Applications in Finance and Insurance

机译:具有仿真研究的极值混合模型及其在金融和保险中的应用

摘要

Extreme value theory has been used to develop models for describing the distribution of rare events. The extreme value theory based models can be used for asymptotically approximating the behavior of the tail(s) of the distribution function. An important challenge in the application of such extreme value models is the choice of a threshold, beyond which point the asymptotically justified extreme value models can provide good extrapolation. One approach for determining the threshold is to fit the all available data by an extreme value mixture model.This thesis will review most of the existing extreme value mixture models in the literature and implement them in a package for the statistical programming language R to make them more readily useable by practitioners as they are not commonly available in any software. There are many different forms of extreme value mixture models in the literature (e.g. parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric), which provide an automated approach for estimating the threshold and taking into account the uncertainties with threshold selection.However, it is not clear that how the proportion above the threshold or tail fraction should be treated as there is no consistency in the existing model derivations. This thesis will develop some new models by adaptation of the existing ones in the literature and placing them all within a more generalized framework for taking into account how the tail fraction is defined in the model. Various new models are proposed by extending some of the existing parametric form mixture models to have continuous density at the threshold, which has the advantage of using less model parameters and being more physically plausible. The generalised framework all the mixture models are placed within can be used for demonstrating the importance of the specification of the tail fraction. An R package called evmix has been created to enable these mixture models to be more easily applied and further developed. For every mixture model, the density, distribution, quantile, random number generation, likelihood and fitting function are presented (Bayesian inference via MCMC is also implemented for the non-parametric extreme value mixture models).A simulation study investigates the performance of the various extreme value mixture models under different population distributions with a representative variety of lower and upper tail behaviors. The results show that the kernel density estimator based non-parametric form mixture model is able to provide good tail estimation in general, whilst the parametric and semi-parametric forms mixture models can give a reasonable fit if the distribution below the threshold is correctly specified. Somewhat surprisingly, it is found that including a constraint of continuity at the threshold does not substantially improve the model fit in the upper tail. The hybrid Pareto model performs poorly as it does not include the tail fraction term. The relevant mixture models are applied to insurance and financial applications which highlight the practical usefulness of these models.
机译:极值理论已用于开发描述稀有事件分布的模型。基于极值理论的模型可用于渐近逼近分布函数尾部的行为。应用此类极值模型的一个重要挑战是阈值的选择,超过该阈值,渐近合理的极值模型可以提供良好的推断。确定阈值的一种方法是通过极值混合模型拟合所有可用数据。本文将回顾文献中大多数现有的极值混合模型,并将其实现为统计编程语言R的软件包从业人员更容易使用它们,因为它们通常无法在任何软件中使用。文献中有多种形式的极值混合模型(例如参数,半参数和非参数),它们提供了一种自动方法来估计阈值并考虑了阈值选择的不确定性。清楚的是,由于现有模型推导中没有一致性,应该如何处理高于阈值或尾部分数的比例。本文将通过改编文献中的现有模型,并考虑到模型中尾部分数的定义,将所有模型置于一个更通用的框架中,从而开发出一些新模型。通过扩展一些现有的参数形式混合模型以在阈值处具有连续密度,提出了各种新模型,这具有使用较少模型参数且在物理上更合理的优点。所有混合模型放置在其中的通用框架可用于证明尾部馏分规格的重要性。已经创建了一个名为evmix的R包,以使这些混合物模型更易于应用和进一步开发。对于每个混合模型,都给出了密度,分布,分位数,随机数生成,似然函数和拟合函数(还对非参数极值混合模型执行了通过MCMC的贝叶斯推理)。模拟研究研究了各种混合模型的性能具有不同的上下尾部行为的不同种群分布下的极值混合模型。结果表明,基于核密度估计器的非参数形式混合模型通常能够提供良好的尾部估计,而如果正确指定低于阈值的分布,则参数和半参数形式的混合模型可以给出合理的拟合。出乎意料的是,发现在阈值处包括连续性约束并不能实质上改善模型在上尾部的拟合。混合帕累托模型的表现不佳,因为它不包括尾部分数项。相关的混合模型适用于保险和金融应用,突出了这些模型的实用性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hu Yang;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2013
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
  • 中图分类

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号