Estimating the non-commercial-commercial feed gap in China and its impact on future world demand for soybeans

摘要

Two effects simultaneously shape the future soybean meal (SBM) demand in China: the income effect on meat consumption and the transition effect on feed usage in animal production. The income effect has been studied intensively by previous researchers, and more animal products are believed to be consumed. The transition effect, however, has yet received enough attention. This study shows that transition effect is more important in determining China???s future derived demand for SBM than income effect. Future soybean demand in China is predicted based on both effects till 2030.