Different levels of congesti'on are 'encountered in ports all over theworld and particularly in developing countries. Depending on thevolume of traffic flow over time, the changes of development in theeconomy and industrial activity and the random arrival and servicepattern of ships; the optimum berthing capacity resulting in minimumcost at any future time period has to be determined to avoid undesirablerepercussions.The existing methods fail to provide the links between the aggregateeconomy, demand and optimal berthing capacity for all time periodsof the planning horizon, and conventional techniques based on staticframeworks are used to arrive at optimal strategies for specific timesinto the future.This study is an attempt to remedy those difficulties and relatefuture demand to optimal berthing capacity in an interactive dynamicfashion.Three models are developed: a forecasting model linking seabornetrade to gross domestic product, population, productions consumptionand elasticity of demand;, a simulation model relating the variousdemand levels to different port configurations; and an investmentmodel relating the resulting congestion cost to capital cost, wherean optimal strategy in berthing capacity is achieved for the years19859 19909 1995 and 2000.The last model has been extended using the above mentioned points intime to result in an optimal berthing capacity for any future timeperiod within the planning horizon 1985 - 2000. This model isvalidated through forecasting, simulating and appraising the 1992and 1998 results and reducing the amount, costs and time of work by75 per cent.
展开▼
