An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional wateravailability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England.

摘要

A multi-scale approach has linked farm level decisions with regional wateravailability assessments that allow for environmental water needs and thecompeting demands for water. This is incorporated within a user-interactivesoftware tool, enabling the impact of a range of variables to be easilyexamined. Climate change leads to increased potential irrigation demand in EastAnglia and North West England. Under baseline socio-economic conditions, resultssuggest that such increased future water demands can be met in the North West,but in the drier East Anglian region are counter to the decreasing wateravailability under all climate scenarios. The decreasing availability ismoderated or exacerbated according to the environmental priorities of the futuresocio-economic scenarios. Under economically focussed regional futures, watersupply availability increases at the expense of the environment, despite highwater demands. Under environmentally focussed futures, demand restrictions areneeded due to the further decreased water availability as a consequence of thehigh environmental priority. Results show that the effectiveness of waterpricing for reducing irrigation demand is also scenario-dependent. Whereregional food production is important, irrigation demand is relatively price-insensitive and abstraction controls will be most effective, whereas in a globalmarket-drive future, irrigation demand is shown to be price-sensitive.