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Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century

机译:生物和人类对21世纪海洋生物地球化学预期变化的脆弱性

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摘要

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygenconcentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic globalassessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broaderimplications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until2100 and showed that the entire world’s ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of oceanwarming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world’s oceansurface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there beocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots andfound that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. Thissuperposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed tocope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurringbiogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effecton human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food,jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry.These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in afuture following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
机译:持续不断的温室气体排放会改变气候过程,并引起海洋温度,pH,氧气浓度和生产力的变化,进而可能改变生物和社会系统。在此,我们对未来海洋生物地球化学变量随海洋生物群的同时变化及其对人类的广泛意义进行了总体全球评估。我们分析了直到2100年温室气体浓度途径强迫下的现代地球系统模型,结果表明,全球变暖,酸化,耗氧或生产力下降的强度都会同时影响整个海洋表面。相比之下,世界海洋表面的一小部分(主要在极地地区)会经历增加的氧合作用和生产力,而洋海冷却或pH升高几乎没有发生。我们汇总了32个海洋栖息地和生物多样性热点的全球分布,发现它们都将同时暴露于多种生物地球化学变量的变化中。这种叠加凸显了生态系统协同响应的高风险,应对未来气候变化所需的一系列生理适应措施以及全球生物多样性格局重组的潜力。如果同时发生的生物地球化学变化影响海洋产品和服务的交付,那么它们也可能对人类福利产生重大影响。世界上约有470至8.7亿最贫穷的人严重依赖海洋来获取食物,工作和收入,并生活在受海洋生物地球化学同步变化影响最大的国家中。这些结果凸显了海洋退化的高风险随着人为温室气体排放的当前趋势,未来的生态系统和相关的人类困境也有望出现。

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