Good skills in bad times : cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession

摘要

We show that cyclical skill mismatch, defined as mismatch between theskills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries,is an important mechanism behind persistent career loss from graduating inrecessions. Using Norwegian data, we find a strong countercyclical pattern ofskill mismatch among college graduates. Initial labor market conditions havea declining but persistent effect on the probability of mismatch early in theircareers. We provide a simple model of industry mobility that is consistentwith our empirical findings. The initially mismatched graduates are also morevulnerable to business cycle variations at the time of graduation.