The Russo-Ukrainian gas conflict and its effect on EU's approach to energy security

摘要

The Russo-Ukrainian gas conflict was a prolonged dispute between RussiaUkraine on issues in the gas relations between the two countries. This conflict hascaused several supply disruptions in the supplies to the EU. The supply disruptionof 2009 was the most in the history of the EU. The goal of this thesis has been toanalyze if this conflict, has caused a change in EU’s approach to energy security,from an internal market perspective, to a security of supply perspective.The focus of the existing literature is, to a great extent, independently on eitherenergy security, the conflict itself or EU’s energy policy. This thesis contributeswith an analysis of the effect of this particular conflict on EU’s approach toenergy security, through five causal mechanisms. These five mechanisms are;“The New World of Oil”, the Eastern enlargement, the return of Russia on theinternational scene, Gazprom’s goal of global domination and the changes in theEuropean utility industry. To analyze the effects, liberal intergovernmentalism hasbeen applied as the theoretical framework which has guided the analyticalprocess. Rather than to test the theory by this particular case, LI has been appliedto derive empirical implications for the use in the analysis. These implications, incombination with the five mechanisms, have guided the analysis. The data hasbeen based on EU documents, documents published by national governments,company reports, organizational reports, news articles and scholarly contributionsBased on the findings, the conclusion is that there was a change in approachtowards security if supply by the turn of the new millennium, as a consequence ofthe changes in the world’s oil market. The Russo-Ukrainian gas conflictreinforced this trend. Based on the findings, it seems that the conflict did nothappen in a vacuum, as s stand-alone event. Rather it may be seen as symptomaticfor the wider changes in the world’s energy markets. For some Member States, theconflict was a wake-up call, as EU’s economic assumptions were challenged. Forothers Member States, it reinforced latent geopolitical interests. Despite increasedfocus on security of supply, the Member States preferences continue to diverge toa considerable degree, because of different views on Russia, and because ofdifferent interpretations of energy as a resource. This divergence continues to be ahindrance towards a common energy policy.