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Extreme keel drafts in the Fram Strait 2006-2011

机译:2006-2011年弗拉姆海峡的极端龙骨吃水

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摘要

Knowledge about extreme keel drafts is needed for appropriate design of offshore installations in ice ridge infested waters. Ice drafts were measured with upward looking sonar by the Norwegian Polar Institute in the western part of the Fram Strait along 79°N in the period 2006 to 2011. This is where the Transpolar Drift exits the Arctic Ocean, and the ice consists of a mixture of first-year and old ice originating from most parts of the Arctic Ocean. In total, 8 year-long deployments at 4 locations were analyzed. A generalized Pareto distribution was fitted to all ridges deeper than 17 m. This only amounts to a small fraction of all the ridges, but follows the methodology common for the calculation of extremes. All ridges deeper than 25 m were investigated prior to the analysis to ensure that no icebergs or other misidentified features were included. In total, 5 identified ridges were removed. The deepest ridge observed in the period was 35 m deep and 5 more ridges were deeper than 30 m in these 8 deployment seasons. Since the shape parameter in the generalized Pareto Distribution was close to zero the distribution could be simplified into an exponential distribution. Assuming an exponential distribution gave an estimated 100-year return value in the range 37 to 41 m.
机译:需要适当了解有关龙骨吃水深度的知识,才能对冰脊出没海域中的海上设施进行适当的设计。在2006年至2011年期间,挪威极地研究所(Fram Strait)沿79°N用向上看的声纳测量了冰的吃水深度。这是跨极漂流离开北冰洋的地方,冰由混合物组成来自北冰洋大部分地区的第一年的和古老的冰。总共分析了在4个地点进行的长达8年的部署。将广义帕累托分布拟合到所有深于17 m的山脊上。这仅占所有山脊的一小部分,但遵循用于计算极值的常用方法。在分析之前,对所有深于25 m的山脊进行了调查,以确保不包括冰山或其他错误识别的特征。总共删除了5个已识别的山脊。在这8个部署季节中,此期间观察到的最深山脊为35 m深,比30 m多5个山脊。由于广义帕累托分布中的形状参数接近于零,因此可以将分布简化为指数分布。假设指数分布给出的100年返回值估计在37到41 m之间。

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