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Detection of changes in the characteristics of oceanographic time-series using changepoint analysis.

机译:使用变化点分析检测海洋时间序列特征的变化。

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摘要

Changepoint analysis is used to detect changes in variability within GOMOS hindcast time-series for significant wave heights of storm peak events across the Gulf of Mexico for the period 1900–2005. To detect a change in variance, the two-step procedure consists of (1) validating model assumptions per geographic location, followed by (2) application of a penalized likelihood changepoint algorithm. Results suggest that the most important changes in time-series variance occur in 1916 and 1933 at small clusters of boundary locations at which, in general, the variance reduces. No post-war changepoints are detected. The changepoint procedure can be readily applied to other environmental time-series.
机译:变更点分析用于检测1900-2005年期间横跨墨西哥湾的风暴峰值事件的显着波高的GOMOS后播时间序列内的变异性变化。为了检测方差的变化,分两步的程序包括(1)验证每个地理位置的模型假设,然后(2)应用惩罚似然变化点算法。结果表明,时间序列方差中最重要的变化发生在1916年和1933年的边界位置的小簇上,通常这些方差会减小。没有检测到战后变更点。变更点过程可以很容易地应用于其他环境时间序列。

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