Does serious offending lead to homicide?:exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime.

摘要

The inter-relationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n=45,915), blackmail (n=5,774), kidnapping (n=7,291) and threats to kill (n=9,816) in England and Wales (1979-2001), we examine the specialisation and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8%) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0%). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction