China's Foreign Trade and Comparative Advantage: Prospects, Problems, and Policy Implications

摘要

The study undertakes a detailed analysis of secular trends in the People's Republic of China's trade and 'revealed' comparative advantage for roughly two decades starting in the mid-1960s. The empirical analysis shows China has a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in a relatively broad range of products, and that almost all of these items are labor intensive in production or require inputs of specialized natural resource materials. China's RCA profile resembles those of other regional economics which have largely built their export base on labor intensive products. These data suggest that unless intra-industry trade is accelerated the potential for regional trade conflicts is greater than that for regional integration. Separate tabulations for the EC(10), Japan and United States show that products in which China has a revealed comparative advantage often face major forms of 'hard core' nontariff barriers, particularly in textiles, clothing and processed agricultural products. By relating the shape and position of its RCA index profile to those of other countries, China's relative maturity as an exporter can be established. The results suggest that China is currently one of the least mature of the Asian economies and that its future revealed comparative advantage will likely experience a high degree of change. Several procedures for monitoring and analyzing these potential changes are suggested.