Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked. Part 3: Fuel Consumed by Light Duty Vehicles.

摘要

This study examined recent trends in fuel consumption by light-duty vehicles (cars, pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans) in the U.S. fleet. The period examined was from 1984 through 2011. This is a follow-up study to Sivak (2013a; 2013b), in which I analyzed the corresponding trends in the number of registered light-duty vehicles and distance driven. Although the report also presents trends in the total fuel consumption, of primary interest were the fuel-consumption rates per person, per licensed driver, per household, and per registered vehicle. All of these rates reached their maxima in 2003 or 2004--several years prior to the beginning of the current economic downturn--and decreased by 13% to 17% by 2011. These maxima coincide with the maxima in the distance-driven rates. However, the decreases in the fuel-consumption rates between the peaks and the 2011 values (13% to 17%) are greater than the corresponding decreases in the distance-driven rates (5% to 9%), reflecting the added contribution of the improved vehicle fuel economy. Because the onsets of the reductions in the distance-driven rates were not the results of short-term, economic changes, and because of the expected continuation of the improvements in vehicle fuel economy, the 2004 maxima in the fuel-consumption rates have a good chance of being long-term peaks as well.