Development and Evaluation of Alternative State Estimates of Poverty, Food StampProgram Eligibility, and Food Stamp Program Participation

摘要

The Food and Consumer Service (FCS) seeks estimates of State poverty counts,State FSP eligibility counts, and State FSP participation rates. The FSP participation rate is a key measure of program effectiveness. The purpose of this study is to assess the suitability of alternative estimation methods, to derive the estimates requested by FCS, and to evaluate the estimates obtained. We consider five small-area estimation methods that can be used to obtain estimates of State poverty counts, State FSP eligibility counts, and State FSP participation rates: the direct sample estimation method, the regression method, the ratio-correlation technique, Shrinkage methods, Structure preserving estimation (SPREE) After weighing the relative advantages and disadvantages of all five methods we recommend three methods--direct sample estimation method, regression method, shrinkage methods, for empirical application and testing.