Kaernvapnen i OSS: FOA Kommenterar Nagra Aktuella Fragor om Kaernvapen iOberoende Staters Samvaelde (Nuclear Weapons in the CIS: FOA Comments upon Some Current Questions Regarding Nuclear Weapons in the Commonwealth of Independent States)

摘要

The breakdown of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS) in the span of just a few years has created a new situation that has brought several nuclear weapon questions to the fore. The report treats, from a technical viewpoint, questions regarding nuclear weapon security, the handling and destruction of weapons and proliferation consequences of transfer of nuclear equipment and knowledge. As a background an account is given of how the Soviet arsenal evolved, of past nuclear testing and of current treaties. It is hard to make reliable estimates of how the small risks connected to the handling of nuclear weapons may have increased. Considering the current turbulent situation the possibility of illegal trade and transfer of knowledge may be the most severe problem. If, contrary to expectations, the security of nuclear weapons is unreliable, the weapons may in certain situations constitute an important factor in conflicts between the members of the CIS. It seems, however, unlikely that nuclear weapons would be used. If CIS develops into a stable commonwealth, the nuclear weapon situation will mainly be determined by CIS considerations of the role of nuclear weapons in security policy and military strategy and by its non-proliferation and disarmament policy.