Urban Travel Reliability Analysis with Consumer GPS Data. Final Report for SHRP2 Reliability Idea Project L15D.

摘要

This project explores the use of commercially available consumer GPS data in travel reliability studies. Travel time reliability concerned in this study has two dimensions. The first dimension is the probability of completing a trip within a given time budget, the so-called on-time arrival probability. This measure is related to how the decision maker deems the importance of a trip. The second dimension has to do with the fact that for the trip deemed as equally important (i.e. the same on-time arrival probability is required), two individuals may choose different routes and reserve different amounts of time for travel depending on their risk-taking preference. This dimension reflects travelers risk-taking behavior in the face of uncertainty, which is largely ignored in previous studies. This project examines two TomTom traffic data products, namely MultiNet and TrafficStats, which produce respectively time-of-day link travel speed profile and travel time statistics on selected routes. The project has two primary objectives. The first is to evaluate the quality of the aforementioned commercial data products using publically available traffic sensor data (specifically, Gary-Chicago-Milwaukee, or GCM, database). The second objective has to do with evaluating the impacts of this new data source on reliable route guidance.