Allocating Constrained Global Carbon Budgets: Interregional and IntergenerationalEquity for a Sustainable World

摘要

The feasibility of an effective international response to anticipated climatechange is dependent on the recognition of the present and historical inequities between developing and industrialized countries. The paper evaluates long-term climate strategies by which the burden of mitigating climate change by controlling CO2-emissions is shared equitably. The authors first define the global carbon budget as the cumulated CO2-emissions over the period 1800 till 2100, from 1990 described by an emission scenario. The budget determines the permitted CO2-emissions per capita using past and future population estimates. Next, the authors introduce the concept of 'emission debt', defined by the difference between the cumulated allowed CO2-emissions, based on the permitted emission quota per capita, and the actual historical CO2-emissions. Finally the remaining carbon budget, described as the global carbon budget (1800-2100) minus the actual cumulated CO2-emissions (1800-1990) is allocated to the different world-regions, taking into account the regional past CO2-emissions. This gives the future emission quota per capita.