Preliminary Development of a Stochastic Model to Analyze Risk Associated with the Transport of Hazardous Substances

摘要

Because of the recognized risks associated with the transport of hazardous substances (both useable materials and wastes), federal, state, and local agencies are under growing pressure to minimize the risk of spills and accidental releases of dangerous substances and in the event of a spill event, to protect the public from adverse effects. To meet this need, a preliminary computer model is presented for use in incident management in urban and rural traffic operations. The model is in the Macintosh Hypercard format and allows the user to assess the risks associated with transport of hazardous substances, including the potential of an accidental release and risks to the public and the environment should a release occur. As part of the long-term model development strategy, the preliminary model was tested at a workshop of Alaska Department of Transportation personnel and researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Transportation Research Center. During the workshop, participants were asked to critique the model structure, user interface, and utility. Specific suggestions were solicited on how the model could be strengthened and improved. An overall rating sheet was filled out by each participant to provide a quasi-quantitative assessment of the model as a management tool. The preliminary model will serve as the core for the development and refinement of a more sophisticated risk analysis model.