Expert Elicitation of Future Climate in the Yucca Mountain Vicinity. Iterative Performance Assessment Phase 2.5

摘要

Expert judgments are expected to be a source of data for use in long-term safety assessments of high-level waste (HLW) geologic repositories. Future climate in the Yucca Mountain Nevada vicinity (YMNV) was selected as the topic for elicitation. The report summarizes the process, procedures, and results of the expert elicitation project for future climate in the YMNV. Aggregation of elicitation results from several experts including consensus-building is also examined. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the definition of potential future climate scenarios in the vicinity of the proposed HLW repository at Yucca Mountain and their associated probabilities. A panel of five climatologists was selected through an objective process and assembled to develop probability distributions of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation, which will serve as input to performance assessment (PA) models.