Asia Situation and Outlook Series, August 1993

摘要

Asia, the largest regional market for U.S. farm exports, is projected to showstronger import demand in the 1990's than in the 1980's. The 1990's outlook is sensitive to many factors, including Asian economic growth and potential trade reform involving agriculture. Import demand for wheat, feeds, meat, and value-added goods in China and South and Southeast Asia will be sensitive to income growth. Market-oriented reforms, either unilateral or multilateral under GATT, are expected to lead to higher U.S. farm exports to the large and relatively protected East Asian markets. However, gains might be partially offset by increased competition for sales of corn, meat, cotton and, possible, wheat from developing Asian countries, where internal prices are generally low. An Asian regional trade agreement involving East and Southeast Asian countries, while not likely, could increase intraregional farm trade and slow U.S. exports for commodities such as rice, coarse grain, and meat.