Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield: A Comparison of Four Model Performances

摘要

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases areexpected to modify temperature and rainfall the next 50-100 years. Mechanisms and hypotheses of plant response to these changes could be incorporated in models predicting crop yield estimates to better understand potential consequences of such changes. Asia is particularly important since demographic forecasts indicate rice supplies worldwide will need to increase by 1.6% annually to the year 2000 to match population growth estimates. The objectives of the paper are (1) review the major hypotheses and/or experimental results regarding rice sensitivity to climate change and (2) evaluate the suitability of existing rice models for assessing the impact of global climate change on rice production. A review of four physiologically-based rice models (RICEMOD, CERES-Rice, MACROS, RICESYS) illustrates their potential to predict rice responses to elevated CO2 and increased temperature. (Copyright (c) 1993 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam.)