U.S. Gas Transportation Trends: 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. April 1993

摘要

The paper summarizes lower-48 gas transportation trends in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major strategic input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1994 research and development program. The 1993 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained from a large resource base at competitive prices. The optimistic outlook significantly affects the lower-48 gas transportation system and charges. The increased gas throughput in the lower-48 gas transportation system reduces upward pressures on transportation charges per unit of gas delivered. Real gas transportation charges in the 1993 projection decline over the projection period, offsetting 22 percent of the projected increase in gas acquisition prices between 1991 and 2010. Regional and seasonal distributions of gas sales change over the projection period. Some changes in the regional share of lower-48 gas supply will require construction of new pipeline capacity, but other changes will reflect flow reversals in an existing pipeline corridor. Differences in the seasonality of gas sales among lower-48 end-use regions principally reflect shifts in gas consumption among end-use sectors or among end-use services within each sector. New requirements for storage capacity will reflect local technical requirements rather than variations in the broad patterns of seasonal demand.