Forecasting Outbreaks of the Douglas-Fir Tussock Moth from Lower Crown CocoonSamples

摘要

A predictive technique using a simple linear regression was developed to forecastthe midcrown density of small tussock moth larvae from estimates of cocoon density in the previous generation. The regression estimator was derived from field samples of cocoons and larvae taken from a wide range of nonoutbreak tussock moth populations. The accuracy of the predictions was demonstrated on an operational basis in an independent tussock moth outbreak.