World Durum Trade Model

摘要

The objective of the study was to assess the competitiveness of U.S. durumproducers in supplying durum by estimating production levels and trade flows under alternative trade scenarios. A mathematical programming model was used to compare production levels and distribution patterns for the durum market under protectionist and liberalized market environments. Production levels and export market share over recent years indicate there has been a shift in the competitiveness of major durum exporters. The results of the study indicate that increased European Economic Community (EEC) exports have had a negative effect on the ability of U.S. and Canadian producers to compete in the world durum market. The U.S. is able to continue to compete with the EEC in the export market but has lost a competitive advantage in its domestic market. Canada has not provided the same level of support for exports, but has maintained a relatively stable market share by increasing sales to its nearest importer, the United States.