Verification of NOAA Space Environment Laboratory Forecasts, January 1-December31, 1993

摘要

This summary report compiles verification statistics for the primary forecastsissued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Laboratory (SEL). The following forecasts are evaluated: probability forecasts of M-class, Chi-class, and Proton flares expected for each of the next three days; integer-value forecasts of 10.7 cm Solar Flux, Fredericksburg A-Index, and Planetary A-Index for each of the next seven days; and next-day probability forecasts of geomagnetic activity levels at middle latitudes. This report covers forecasts made during 1 January to 31 December 1993. Three levels of verification information are presented to accommodate different verification users. The first level presents an overview of forecast performance, concentrating on a few key verification measures and the ways in which these measures evolve over time. The second level offers several verification measures and diagrams to provide a detailed evaluation of each forecast. The third level focuses on the performance of individual forecasters.