Simple and Practical Computerized Parametric Wave/Swell Forecast Model

摘要

The technical memorandum describes a simple computerized wave/swell forecastmodel designed to provide useful 'quick look' guidance for forecast offices which have marine responsibility or occasionally may need to forecast wind and wave conditions over water. The enclosed program is a computerized ensemble of wave/swell research results which have been performed in the past. The National Meteorological Center ocean wave forecast models are much more sophisticated than the one described here. However, wave forecasts are very sensitive to wind speed input (wave height is proportional to the square of the wind speed); hence in areas where model wind analyses and/or forecasts are poor, the forecaster may be able to input better estimates of current or future wind conditions, thus improving upon wave/swell forecasts in a specific area of interest. Remember, this is a simple parametric wave model. Results should be used as marine forecast guidance, not used as the marine forecast.