Development of a Time-Dependent Hurricane Evacuation Model for the New Orleans Area, Technical Summary.

摘要

The goal of the research was to develop and test a new data collection method capable of collecting time-dependent evacuation behavior data. To accomplish this goal, the following objectives were established: (1) Design a time-dependent, audio-visually based stated choice questionnaire. (2) Design a conventional static revealed preference self-administered questionnaire to be administered jointly with the time-dependent, audiovisually based stated choice questionnaire. (3) Monitor the time and cost of each survey separately. (4) Enhance the revealed preference data with time-dependent storm data from official sources. (5) Estimate two time-dependent sequential logit models (TDSLM) of evacuation demandone on the enhanced revealed preference data and the other on joint data formed by combining the enhanced revealed preference data and time-dependent stated choice data. (6) Apply each model to conditions reflecting Hurricane Georges. (7) Compare each models prediction of time-dependent evacuation demand with the reported values from the post- Georges survey conducted by the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center in November 1998. (8) Specify and derive a time-dependent nested logit model (TDNLM) that relaxes the restrictive assumptions imposed by the TDSLM model. (9) Estimate a TDNLM using Hurricane Gustav data and compare the models prediction with the prediction from the TDSLM on the same data. (10) Compare the cost and predictive performance of each survey method.