Heading for Divergence: Regional Growth in Europe Reconsidered

摘要

What we will do in this paper is to apply the 'neo-technology' framework toregional growth rate differences within Europe. Section 2 looks at the facts about convergence in levels of per capita GDP in the European Union over the postwar period. Based on the finding that intra-European catch-up appears to have come to an end, Section 3 introduces some variables that may help to explain this pattern. It is shown that the potential for catch-up is not exhausted. What seems to have happened is that other factors, among them some related to EU policies, have pushed towards divergence. Section 4 looks in more detail at the hypothesis of a 'Europe at different speeds'. The analysis seems to suggest that there exist at least three different 'growth clubs' characterized by differences in unemployment levels as well as the impact of the variables taken into account in the analysis. Section 5 summarizes the arguments and considers the lessons for policy-making.